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1.
Science ; 381(6662): 1085-1092, 2023 Sep 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37676954

ABSTRACT

Volcanic eruptions on land create hot and fast pyroclastic density currents, triggering tsunamis or surges that travel over water where they reach the ocean. However, no field study has documented what happens when large volumes of erupted volcanic material are instead delivered directly into the ocean. We show how the rapid emplacement of large volumes of erupted material onto steep submerged slopes triggered extremely fast (122 kilometers per hour) and long-runout (>100 kilometers) seafloor currents. These density currents were faster than those triggered by earthquakes, floods, or storms, and they broke seafloor cables, cutting off a nation from the rest of the world. The deep scours excavated by these currents are similar to those around many submerged volcanoes, providing evidence of large eruptions at other sites worldwide.

2.
Arch Dis Child ; 108(8): 659-664, 2023 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36997296

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Knowledge of alcohol consumption in pregnancy is important for early identification of children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder. We investigated whether alcohol biomarkers fatty acid ethyl esters (FAEEs) and ethyl glucuronide (EtG) in meconium are predicted by maternal or newborn demographics and/or correlate with confidential early postnatal self-report of alcohol consumption in pregnancy. DESIGN: Anonymised, observational population-based study. SETTING: Inner-city maternity unit, Glasgow, UK. PATIENTS: Singleton mother/infant dyads delivering every fourth day. INTERVENTIONS: Mother: confidential postnatal interview. Baby: meconium sample for FAEEs and EtG. RESULTS: 840/908 mothers consented. 370 (46.4%) reported alcohol consumption in pregnancy, generally of modest amount; for 114 (13.6%) this was after 20 weeks' gestation. Alcohol consumption in later pregnancy was more commonly reported by older (31.3 vs 29.5 years) women of white British ethnicity (p<0.05); their babies were on average 118 g heavier (p=0.032). FAEEs were identified in all meconium samples; concentration was ≥600 ng/g in 39.6%. EtG concentration was ≥30 ng/g in 14.5%. Neither biomarker was associated with maternal age, body mass index or socioeconomic status but when EtG was ≥30 ng/g, the mother was less likely to identify as white British (71.3% vs 81.8%, p=0.028). Sensitivities of FAEEs ≥600 ng/g and EtG ≥30 ng/g were 43.1% and 11.6%, respectively for postnatal self-report of alcohol use in later pregnancy (specificities 60.6% and 84.8%). CONCLUSIONS: FAEEs and EtG measured in meconium have low sensitivity and specificity for self-reported alcohol consumption after 20 weeks' gestation in an unselected Scottish population.


Subject(s)
Ethanol , Meconium , Infant, Newborn , Child , Female , Humans , Pregnancy , Alcohol Drinking , Mothers , Biomarkers , Fatty Acids , Esters
3.
Addiction ; 118(8): 1445-1456, 2023 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36843417

ABSTRACT

AIMS: To evaluate whether adding financial incentives to usual care is cost-effective in encouraging pregnant women to quit tobacco smoking, compared with usual care alone. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and cost-utility analysis (CUA) from a health-care provider's perspective, embedded in the Smoking Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial (CPIT III). Long-term analyses were conducted from the same perspective, using an existing Markov model over a life-time horizon. SETTING: Seven maternity smoking cessation sites in Scotland, England and Northern Ireland in the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: In the short-term analysis, CPIT III participants were assessed: women 16 years or older, self-reporting as smokers, fewer than 24 weeks pregnant and English-speaking (n = 944). The same population was used for the life-time analysis, plus their infants. MEASUREMENTS: Costs included financial incentive vouchers and postage, cessation support and nicotine replacement therapy and neonatal stays. The outcome measure was a biochemically verified quit rate for the CEA and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for CUA. Costs are presented in 2020 GBP sterling (£). Data for the life-time analysis came from the trial and were combined with data from published literature embedded in the model, reporting incremental cost per quitter and QALY. A 3.5% discount rate was applied. FINDINGS: The short-term incremental cost per quitter was £4400 and cost per QALY was £150 000. Results of sensitivity analyses confirmed these results. The long-term analysis combined costs and outcomes for mother and infants; results showed a cost saving of £37 [95% confidence interval (CI]) = £35-106] and increase in QALYs of 0.171 (95% CI = 0.124-0.229). These findings indicate that, over a life-time, financial incentives are cost-saving and improve health outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In the United Kingdom, offering up to £400 financial incentives, in addition to usual care, to support pregnant women to stop smoking appears to be highly cost-effective over a life-time for mother and infants.


Subject(s)
Smoking Cessation , Female , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Pregnancy , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Motivation , Smoking/therapy , Smoking Cessation/methods , Tobacco Smoking , Tobacco Use Cessation Devices
4.
Arch Dis Child ; 108(1): 36-41, 2023 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36288922

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) places children at risk of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) but ascertainment of PAE is problematic. Early intervention for children at risk of FASD may help mitigate long-term difficulties. Phosphatidylethanol (PEth), a metabolite of alcohol, is incorporated into red cell membranes and can be measured in dried blood spot (DBS) cards. In the UK, DBS samples are collected on day 5 for routine newborn screening. We sought to examine if PEth measured from DBS correlates with postnatal maternal self-report of alcohol consumption in pregnancy. DESIGN: Observational population-based study. Comparison of infant PEth concentration and self-report of maternal alcohol use during pregnancy. SETTING: Large maternity unit in Glasgow, Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: All singleton mother-infant dyads delivered during each fourth consecutive 24-hour period. INTERVENTIONS: Mother: direct, confidential, immediate postnatal interview by a single researcher examining alcohol use during pregnancy. Infant: one extra DBS collected coincident with routine newborn screening if bleeding continued. RESULTS: 92.5% of eligible mothers agreed to participate. 510 DBS were obtained of which 502 were successfully analysed. 216 (43%) samples contained PEth at a concentration of ≥8 ng/mL and 148 (29.5%) at ≥20 ng/mL. The sensitivity of PEth ≥8 ng/mL and ≥20 ng/mL in identifying women who self-reported modest alcohol use after 36 weeks' gestation was 50% and 36.4%, respectively. CONCLUSION: PEth measured from DBS obtained on day 5 of life does not reliably identify modest PAE after 36 weeks' gestation from maternal self-report.


Subject(s)
Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders , Prenatal Exposure Delayed Effects , Female , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Pregnancy , Alcohol Drinking/adverse effects , Alcohol Drinking/epidemiology , Biomarkers , Dried Blood Spot Testing , Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders/diagnosis , Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders/epidemiology
6.
BMJ ; 379: e071522, 2022 10 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36261162

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To examine effectiveness, cost effectiveness, generalisability, and acceptability of financial incentives for smoking cessation during pregnancy in addition to variously organised UK stop smoking services. DESIGN: Pragmatic, multicentre, single blinded, phase 3, randomised controlled trial (Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial phase 3 (CPIT III)). SETTING: Seven UK stop smoking services provided in primary and secondary care facilities in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and England. PARTICIPANTS: 944 pregnant women (age ≥16 years) who self-reported as being smokers (at least one cigarette in the past week) when asked at first maternity visit, less than 24 weeks' gestation, and notified to the trial team by routine stop smoking services. INTERVENTIONS: Participants in the control group were offered the standard stop smoking services, which includes the offer of counselling by specially trained workers using withdrawal orientated therapy and the offer of free nicotine replacement therapy. The intervention was the offer of usual support from the stop smoking services and the addition of up to £400 ($440; €455) of LoveToShop financial voucher incentives for engaging with current stop smoking services or to stop smoking, or both, during pregnancy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported smoking cessation in late pregnancy (between 34 and 38 weeks' gestation) corroborated by saliva cotinine (and anabasine if using nicotine replacement products). Results were adjusted for age, smoking years, index of multiple deprivation, Fagerström score, before or after covid, and recruitment site. Secondary outcomes included point and continuous abstinence six months after expected date of delivery, engagement with stop smoking services, biochemically validated abstinence from smoking at four weeks after stop smoking date, birth weight of baby, cost effectiveness, generalisability documenting formats of stop smoking services, and acceptability to pregnant women and their carers. RESULTS: From 9 January 2018 to 4 April 2020, of 4032 women screened by stop smoking services, 944 people were randomly assigned to the intervention group (n=471) or the control group (n=470). Three people asked for their data to be removed. 126 (27%) of 471 participants stopped smoking from the intervention group and 58 (12%) of 470 from the control group (adjusted odds ratio 2.78 (1.94 to 3.97) P<0.001). Serious adverse events were miscarriages and other expected pregnancy events requiring hospital admission; all serious adverse events were unrelated to the intervention. Most people who stopped smoking from both groups relapsed after their baby was born. CONCLUSIONS: The offer of up to £400 of financial voucher incentives to stop smoking during pregnancy as an addition to current UK stop smoking services is highly effective. This bolt-on intervention supports new guidance from the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, which includes the addition of financial incentives to support pregnant women to stop smoking. Continuing incentives to 12 months after birth is being examined to prevent relapse. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN15236311.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Smoking Cessation , Female , Humans , Pregnancy , Adolescent , Smoking Cessation/methods , Motivation , Pregnant Women , Tobacco Use Cessation Devices , Cotinine , Anabasine , Smoking/adverse effects , Scotland
7.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 22(1): 138, 2022 05 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35562676

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Stigmatized behaviours are often underreported, especially in pregnancy, making them challenging to address. The Alcohol and Child Development Study (ACDS) seeks to inform prevention of foetal alcohol harm, linking self-report as well as a maternal blood alcohol biomarker with child developmental outcomes. Samples were requested using passive, generic consent. The success of this approach at minimizing bias is presented comparing characteristics of women who provided samples to those who did not. METHODS: All pregnant women in the study city were sent a Patient Information Sheet (PIS) with their first NHS obstetric appointment letter. The PIS informed them that the NHS would like to take an extra blood sample for research purposes, unless they opted out. Neither the women nor the midwives were informed that the samples might be tested for an alcohol biomarker. This paper examines the extent to which women who provided the extra sample were representative of women where no sample was provided, in terms of routinely collected information: age; body mass index; area-based deprivation; previous pregnancies, abortions and caesarians; smoking status and carbon monoxide level; self-reported alcohol use, gestation and birth weight of their baby. Chi-square and Mann-Whitney U tests were used to compare groups. RESULTS: 3436 (85%) of the 4049 pregnant women who attended their appointment provided the extra sample. Women who did not were significantly younger (p < 0.001), more materially deprived (p < 0.001), and less likely to be considered for intervention based on self-reported alcohol use (p < 0.001). There were no significant differences between the two groups on other routine data. CONCLUSIONS: The use of passive consent without disclosure of the specific research focus resulted in a high level of sample provision. There was no evidence that study blinding was breached, and women who provided a sample were more likely to report alcohol consumption. Passive consent to draw additional blood for research purposes at routine antenatal venipuncture reduced sampling bias compared to asking women to give blood for an alcohol study. This methodology may be useful for other stigmatised behaviours.


Subject(s)
Alcohol Drinking , Child Development , Smoking Cessation , Smoking , Alcohol Drinking/adverse effects , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Pregnancy , Pregnant Women , Smoking Cessation/methods
8.
BMJ Open ; 12(12): e066494, 2022 12 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36600364

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Financial incentives are recommended by the UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence to aid smoking cessation in pregnancy. However, little is known about how implementation contexts might impact on their effectiveness. Variations in smoking cessation support (usual care) for pregnant women who smoke were examined qualitatively as part of a prospective process evaluation of the Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial (CPIT III). DESIGN: Longitudinal case studies of five CPIT III trial sites informed by realist evaluation. SETTING: A stop smoking service (SSS) serving a maternity hospital constituted each case study, located in three UK countries. PARTICIPANTS: Data collection included semistructured interviews with trial participants (n=22), maternity (n=12) and SSS staff (n=17); and site observations and perspectives recorded in fieldnotes (n=85). RESULTS: Cessation support (usual care) for pregnant women varied in amount, location, staff capacity, flexibility and content across sites. SSS staff capacity was important to avoid gaps in support. Colocation and good working relationships between maternity and SSS professionals enabled prioritisation and reinforced the importance of smoking cessation. Sites with limited use of carbon monoxide (CO) monitoring reduced opportunities to identify smokers while inconsistency around automatic referral processes prevented the offer of cessation support. SSS professionals colocated within antenatal clinics were available to women they could not otherwise reach. Flexibility around location, timing and tailoring of approaches for support, facilitated initial and sustained engagement and reduced the burden on women. CONCLUSIONS: Trial sites faced varied barriers and facilitators to delivering cessation support, reflecting heterogeneity in usual care. If financial incentives are more effective with concurrent smoking cessation support, sites with fewer barriers and more facilitators regarding this support would be expected to have more promising trial outcomes. Future reporting of trial outcomes will assist in understanding incentives' generalisability across a wide range of usual care settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15236311.


Subject(s)
Smoking Cessation , Female , Pregnancy , Humans , Smoking Cessation/methods , Motivation , Pregnant Women , Health Behavior , Prenatal Care/methods
9.
Ergonomics ; 64(4): 427-439, 2021 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33094698

ABSTRACT

This article is concerned with scholarly ergonomics and human factors (E/HF) contributions to date to the field of research inquiry known as the 'future of work'. The review considers E/HF perspectives on how the nature of work is changing and what this means for the practice of E/HF and for human performance and wellbeing at work. This field of research has attracted much attention from scholars from various disciplines as flexible working arrangements and casualised employment, in particular, have come under the microscope during the COVID-19 pandemic. The article begins by setting out the future of work field, focussing on the mega trends and future of work forces that are most relevant to the discipline. Next, E/HF contributions to this field are identified and discussed. Surprisingly, given the E/HF tradition as a system discipline fundamentally concerned with the study of human work, and as a contributor to transdisciplinary research related to the design of work systems, a search of the scholarly literature found few contributions outside of the automation systems field that addressed the future of work and E/HF directly. A research agenda is presented to address gaps in current knowledge in a number of key future of work domains. Practitioner's Summary: We reflect on E/HF contributions to the 'future of work' field and how the practice of E/HF needs to consider the changing nature of work. We outline future of work concerns and suggest research areas for further E/HF attention towards the design of decent and sustainable work for all. Abbreviations: E/HF: ergonomics and human factors; ILO: International Labour Organisation; COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Ergonomics , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Technology/trends , Workforce/trends , Diffusion of Innovation , Forecasting , Humans
10.
BMJ Open ; 10(10): e038827, 2020 10 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33109658

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Smoking results in an average 10-year loss of life, but smokers who permanently quit before age 40 can expect a near normal lifespan. Pregnancy poses a good opportunity to help women to stop; around 80% of women in the UK have a baby, most of whom are less than 40 years of age. Smoking prevalence during pregnancy is high: 17%-23% in the UK. Smoking during pregnancy causes low birth weight and increases the risk of premature birth. After birth, passive smoking is linked to sudden infant death syndrome, respiratory diseases and increased likelihood of taking up smoking. These risks impact the long-term health of the child with associated increase in health costs. Emerging evidence suggests that offering financial incentives to pregnant women to quit is highly cost effective.This protocol describes the economic evaluation of a multi-centre randomised controlled trial (Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial III, CPIT III) designed to establish whether offering financial incentives, in addition to usual care, is effective and cost effective in helping pregnant women to quit. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The economic evaluation will identify, measure and value resource use and outcomes from CPIT III, comparing participants randomised to either usual care or usual care plus up to £400 financial incentives. Within-trial and long-term analyses will be conducted from a National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective; the outcome for both analyses will be quality adjusted life-years measured using EQ-5D-5L. Patient level data collected during the trial will be used for the within-trial analysis, with an additional outcome of cotinine validated quit rates at 34-38 weeks gestation and 6 months postpartum. The long-term model will be informed by data from the trial and published literature. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15236311; Pre-results (https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN15236311).


Subject(s)
Motivation , Smoking Cessation , Adult , Child , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Female , Health Behavior , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Multicenter Studies as Topic , Pregnancy , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , State Medicine
11.
Arch Dis Child ; 105(9): 864-868, 2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32156695

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To assess evidence supporting the view that 'low fibre causes childhood constipation'. DESIGN: Triangulation integrated three approaches: a systematic review NICE guideline CG99 examining effectiveness of increasing fibre; a cohort study, Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), to assess if constipation (or hard stools) can precede fibre intake at weaning; and a literature search for twin studies to calculate heredity. SETTING: CG99 examined the literature regarding the effectiveness of increasing fibre. ALSPAC asked parents about: hard stools at 4 weeks, 6 months and 2.5 years and constipation at age 4-10 years, as well as fibre intake at 2 years. Twin studies and data from ALSPAC were pooled to calculate concordance of constipation comparing monozygotic and dizygous twin pairs. PARTICIPANTS: CG99 reported six randomised controlled trials (RCTs). ALSPAC hard stool data from 6796 children at 4 weeks, 9828 at 6 months and 9452 at 2.5 years plus constipation data on 8401 at 4-10 years were compared with fibre intake at 2 years. Twin studies had 338 and 93 twin pairs and ALSPAC added a further 45. RESULTS: Increasing fibre did not effectively treat constipation. Hard stools at 4 weeks predated fibre and at 6 months predicted lower fibre intake at 2 years (p=0.003). Heredity explained 59% of constipation. CONCLUSIONS: RCTs indicate that increasing fibre is not an effective treatment for constipation in children. Hard stools can precede and predict later fibre intake. Genetic inheritance explains most childhood constipation. Extended treatment with stool softeners may improve fibre intake and limit long-term damaging sequelae of constipation.


Subject(s)
Constipation/etiology , Dietary Fiber/deficiency , Adolescent , Child , Child, Preschool , Constipation/epidemiology , Constipation/genetics , Dietary Fiber/administration & dosage , Diseases in Twins/epidemiology , Female , Genetic Predisposition to Disease , Humans , Male , Surveys and Questionnaires , Twins, Dizygotic , Twins, Monozygotic
12.
Trials ; 21(1): 183, 2020 Feb 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32059684

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Eighty per cent of UK women have at least one baby, making pregnancy an opportunity to help women stop smoking before their health is irreparably compromised. Smoking cessation during pregnancy helps protect infants from miscarriage, still birth, low birth weight, asthma, attention deficit disorder and adult cardiovascular disease. UK national guidelines highlight lack of evidence for effectiveness of financial incentives to help pregnant smokers quit. This includes a research recommendation: within a UK context, are incentives an acceptable, effective and cost-effective way to help pregnant women who smoke to quit? METHODS: The Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial (CPIT) III is a pragmatic, 42-month, multi-centre, parallel-group, individually randomised controlled superiority trial of the effect on smoking status of adding to usual Stop Smoking Services (SSS) support, the offer of up to £400 of financial voucher incentives, compared with usual support alone, to quit smoking during pregnancy. Participants (n = 940) are pregnant smokers (age > 16 years, < 24 weeks pregnant, English speaking), who consent via telephone to take part and are willing to be followed-up in late pregnancy and 6 months after birth. The primary outcome is cotinine/anabasine-validated abstinence from smoking in late pregnancy. Secondary outcomes include engagement with SSS, quit rates at 4 weeks from agreed quit date and 6 months after birth, and birth weight. Outcomes will be analysed by intention to treat, and regression models will be used to compare treatment effects on outcomes. A meta-analysis will include data from the feasibility study in Glasgow. An economic evaluation will assess cost-effectiveness from a UK NHS perspective. Process evaluation using a case-study approach will identify opportunities to improve recruitment and learning for future implementation. Research questions include: what is the therapeutic efficacy of incentives; are incentives cost-effective; and what are the potential facilitators and barriers to implementing incentives in different parts of the UK? DISCUSSION: This phase III trial in Scotland, England and Northern Ireland follows a successful phase II trial in Glasgow, UK. The participating sites have diverse SSS that represent most cessation services in the UK and serve demographically varied populations. If found to be acceptable and cost-effective, this trial could demonstrate that financial incentives are effective and transferable to most UK SSS for pregnant women. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN15236311. Registered on 9 October 2017.


Subject(s)
Financial Support , Motivation , Prenatal Care/methods , Smoking Cessation/methods , Smoking/therapy , Adolescent , Adult , Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic , Cost-Benefit Analysis , England , Equivalence Trials as Topic , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Multicenter Studies as Topic , Northern Ireland , Pragmatic Clinical Trials as Topic , Pregnancy , Prenatal Care/psychology , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , Scotland , Smoking/adverse effects , Smoking/economics , Smoking/psychology , Smoking Cessation/economics , Smoking Cessation/psychology , State Medicine/economics , Young Adult
13.
Matern Child Nutr ; 16(1): e12859, 2020 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31216094

ABSTRACT

The WHO recommends exclusive breastfeeding for 6 months, but despite interventions, breastfeeding rates remain stubbornly low. Financial voucher incentives have shown promise but require a biomarker for validation of intake. This study aimed to develop a simple biochemical assay of infant urine that would tell if an infant was receiving any breast milk to validate maternal report. Urine samples were collected and snap frozen from 34 infants attending with minor illness or feeding problems, of whom 12 infants were exclusively breastfed, nine exclusively formula fed, and 11 mixed breast/formula fed. High-performance anion exchange chromatography was used to identify discriminating patterns of monosaccharide composition of unconjugated glycans in a sequence of three experiments. The absolute concentration of all human milk oligosaccharides measured blind could detect "any breastfeeding" only with a sensitivity of 48% and specificity of 78%. Unblinded examination of N-acetylglucosamine (GlcNAc) measured as GlcNH2 after hydrolysis of GlcNAc improved sensitivity to 75% at the expense of a specificity of 28%. Estimation of the relative abundance of GlcNH2 (GlcNH2[%]) or the ratio of GlcNH2 to endogenous mannose (Man) improved accuracy. In a further blind experiment, the GlcNH2/Man ratio with a cut-off of 1.5 correctly identified all those receiving "any breast milk," while excluding exclusively formula fed infants. The GlcNH2/Man ratio in infant urine is a promising test to provide biochemical confirmation of any breastfeeding for trials of breastfeeding promotion.


Subject(s)
Acetylglucosamine/analysis , Biomarkers/urine , Breast Feeding , Mannose/analysis , Milk, Human/chemistry , Oligosaccharides/analysis , Adult , Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Monosaccharides/analysis , Sensitivity and Specificity
14.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 11946, 2019 08 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31420573

ABSTRACT

On Dec. 22, 2018, at approximately 20:55-57 local time, Anak Krakatau volcano, located in the Sunda Straits of Indonesia, experienced a major lateral collapse during a period of eruptive activity that began in June. The collapse discharged volcaniclastic material into the 250 m deep caldera southwest of the volcano, which generated a tsunami with runups of up to 13 m on the adjacent coasts of Sumatra and Java. The tsunami caused at least 437 fatalities, the greatest number from a volcanically-induced tsunami since the catastrophic explosive eruption of Krakatau in 1883 and the sector collapse of Ritter Island in 1888. For the first time in over 100 years, the 2018 Anak Krakatau event provides an opportunity to study a major volcanically-generated tsunami that caused widespread loss of life and significant damage. Here, we present numerical simulations of the tsunami, with state-of the-art numerical models, based on a combined landslide-source and bathymetric dataset. We constrain the geometry and magnitude of the landslide source through analyses of pre- and post-event satellite images and aerial photography, which demonstrate that the primary landslide scar bisected the Anak Krakatau volcano, cutting behind the central vent and removing 50% of its subaerial extent. Estimated submarine collapse geometries result in a primary landslide volume range of 0.22-0.30 km3, which is used to initialize a tsunami generation and propagation model with two different landslide rheologies (granular and fluid). Observations of a single tsunami, with no subsequent waves, are consistent with our interpretation of landslide failure in a rapid, single phase of movement rather than a more piecemeal process, generating a tsunami which reached nearby coastlines within ~30 minutes. Both modelled rheologies successfully reproduce observed tsunami characteristics from post-event field survey results, tide gauge records, and eyewitness reports, suggesting our estimated landslide volume range is appropriate. This event highlights the significant hazard posed by relatively small-scale lateral volcanic collapses, which can occur en-masse, without any precursory signals, and are an efficient and unpredictable tsunami source. Our successful simulations demonstrate that current numerical models can accurately forecast tsunami hazards from these events. In cases such as Anak Krakatau's, the absence of precursory warning signals together with the short travel time following tsunami initiation present a major challenge for mitigating tsunami coastal impact.

15.
BMJ Open ; 9(3): e023213, 2019 03 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30898797

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Smoking during pregnancy is associated with adverse health impacts on mother and child. We used a large linked Scottish dataset to produce contemporary estimates of the impact on child health, particularly hospitalisation. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study linking birth, death, maternity, infant health, child health surveillance and admission records. We examined the association between smoking status at maternity booking and pregnancy outcomes, hospital admission and death during the first 5 years of life. Models were adjusted for maternal age, socioeconomic status, infant feeding, country of birth, sex, parity and delivery mode. We calculated population attributable fraction (PAF) for each outcome. SETTING: Scotland, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Singleton births between 1997 and 2009 (n=697 003) followed to March 2012. RESULTS: 332 386 children had at least one admission by 31 March 2012. There were 56 588 born small for gestational age, 40 492 prematurely and 1074 postneonatal deaths. Within the first 5 years of life, 56 615 children had at least one admission for acute respiratory infections, 24 088 for bronchiolitis and 7549 for asthma. Maternal smoking significantly increased admission for acute respiratory infections (adjusted HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.34, PAF 6.7%) and bronchiolitis (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.48 under 1 year, PAF 10.1%), asthma (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.37 age 1-5 years, PAF 7.1%) and bacterial meningitis (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.71, PAF 11.8%) age 0-5 years. Neonatal mortality (adjusted OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.49, PAF 6.7%), postneonatal mortality (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.87 to 2.53, PAF 22.3%), small for gestational age (OR 2.67, 95% CI 2.62 to 2.73, PAF 27.5%) and prematurity (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.44, PAF 8.8%) were higher among the offspring of smokers. CONCLUSION: Smoking during pregnancy causes significant ill health and death among children born in Scotland. These findings support continued investment to reduce smoking among women before, during and after pregnancy as 50% of women will go on to have further children.


Subject(s)
Asthma/epidemiology , Infant Mortality , Prenatal Exposure Delayed Effects , Smoking/adverse effects , Adult , Birth Weight , Child, Preschool , Female , Gestational Age , Hospitalization , Humans , Infant , Infant, Low Birth Weight , Infant, Newborn , Infant, Small for Gestational Age , Logistic Models , Male , Maternal Age , Multivariate Analysis , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Outcome , Retrospective Studies , Scotland/epidemiology , Young Adult
16.
BMJ Paediatr Open ; 2(1): e000230, 2018.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29637194

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Constipation and soiling are common in childhood. This study examines the comorbidity between childhood constipation and soiling and early childhood risk factors for these problems. DESIGN: The sample comprised 8435 participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children with maternally reported measures of constipation (six time points between 4 and 10 years) and soiling (five time points between 4 and 9 years). We used latent class analysis to extract longitudinal patterns of constipation and soiling. We examined whether the latent classes are differentially associated with maternally reported risk factors in early childhood (stool consistency, breast feeding, socioeconomic background, gestation, birth weight, developmental level and age at initiation of toilet training) using multinomial logistic regression models. RESULTS: We extracted four latent classes: 'normative' (74.5%: very low probability of constipation or soiling), 'constipation alone' (13.2%), 'soiling alone' (7.5%) and 'constipation with soiling' (4.8%). Hard stools at 2½ years were associated with increased odds of constipation alone. Developmental delay at 18 months was associated soiling alone and constipation with soiling, but not constipation alone. We found limited evidence of associations with socioeconomic background and no evidence of associations with age at initiation of toilet training, breast feeding, gestational age or birth weight. CONCLUSION: Constipation alone was the most prevalent pattern in this cohort. Treatment for hard stools in early childhood is needed to prevent chronic constipation at school age. Constipation with soiling was less common than soiling alone. Further research is needed into the causes of non-retentive soiling.

17.
J Nurs Manag ; 26(7): 842-850, 2018 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29446175

ABSTRACT

AIMS: To explore nurses' understandings and perceptions of workplace cyberbullying, in order to develop a relevant and meaningful definition of the phenomenon for future research and practice. BACKGROUND: Although previous research places nurses at an elevated risk of exposure to traditional workplace bullying, there is a notable absence of research investigating workplace cyberbullying within this profession. Considering the detrimental outcomes experienced by the targets of workplace cyberbullying, this is an issue that warrants focus. METHODS: Utilizing relevant scenarios as prompts, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 16 nurses (practising and in training) to explore their understanding of the concept and dynamics of workplace cyberbullying. RESULTS: Three high-level themes were identified and discussed: (1) cyber-specific features that make cyberbullying more damaging than traditional bullying; (2) the importance of context; and (3) the work environment factors that facilitate the occurrence of workplace cyberbullying. CONCLUSIONS: Our refined definition facilitates the investigation of a broader and more inclusive range of behaviours that targets may experience as workplace cyberbullying, and our findings in general highlight potential antecedents in common with traditional workplace bullying. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT: Given the work environment and the challenges faced by the nursing profession, a system-wide approach to intervention and management is recommended, along with utilizing a nursing-specific definition.


Subject(s)
Cyberbullying/psychology , Perception , Workplace/psychology , Humans , Interviews as Topic/methods , New Zealand , Nursing/methods , Nursing/organization & administration , Nursing/standards , Qualitative Research , Workplace/standards
18.
Pediatrics ; 140(5)2017 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29084835

ABSTRACT

CONTEXT: Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) is a leading cause of postneonatal infant mortality. Our previous meta-analyses showed that any breastfeeding is protective against SIDS with exclusive breastfeeding conferring a stronger effect.The duration of breastfeeding required to confer a protective effect is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations between breastfeeding duration and SIDS. DATA SOURCES: Individual-level data from 8 case-control studies. STUDY SELECTION: Case-control SIDS studies with breastfeeding data. DATA EXTRACTION: Breastfeeding variables, demographic factors, and other potential confounders were identified. Individual-study and pooled analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 2267 SIDS cases and 6837 control infants were included. In multivariable pooled analysis, breastfeeding for <2 months was not protective (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68-1.22). Any breastfeeding ≥2 months was protective, with greater protection seen with increased duration (2-4 months: aOR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.44-0.82; 4-6 months: aOR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.26-0.63; and >6 months: aOR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.22-0.61). Although exclusive breastfeeding for <2 months was not protective (aOR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.59-1.14), longer periods were protective (2-4 months: aOR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.42-0.87; 4-6 months: aOR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.29-0.74). LIMITATIONS: The variables collected in each study varied slightly, limiting our ability to include all studies in the analysis and control for all confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Breastfeeding duration of at least 2 months was associated with half the risk of SIDS. Breastfeeding does not need to be exclusive to confer this protection.


Subject(s)
Breast Feeding/trends , Statistics as Topic/trends , Sudden Infant Death/diagnosis , Sudden Infant Death/epidemiology , Case-Control Studies , Chicago/epidemiology , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant, Newborn , New Zealand/epidemiology , Risk Factors , Time Factors
19.
Trials ; 18(1): 337, 2017 07 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28728583

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial (CPIT), which offered financial incentives for smoking cessation during pregnancy showed a clinically and statistically significant improvement in cessation. However, infant birth weight was not seen to be affected. This study re-examines birth weight using an intuitive and a complier average causal effects (CACE) method to uncover important information missed by intention-to-treat analysis. METHODS: CPIT offered financial incentives up to £400 to pregnant smokers to quit. With incentives, 68 women (23.1%) were confirmed non-smokers at primary outcome, compared to 25 (8.7%) without incentives, a difference of 14.3% (Fisher test, p < 0.0001). For this analysis, randomised groups were split into three theoretical sub-groups: independent quitters - quit without incentives, hardened smokers - could not quit even with incentives and potential quitters - required the addition of financial incentives to quit. Viewed in this way, the overall birth weight gain with incentives is attributable only to potential quitters. We compared an intuitive approach to a CACE analysis. RESULTS: Mean birth weight of potential quitters in the incentives intervention group (who therefore quit) was 3338 g compared with potential quitters in the control group (who did not quit) 3193 g. The difference attributable to incentives, was 3338 - 3193 = 145 g (95% CI -617, +803). The mean difference in birth weight between the intervention and control groups was 21 g, and the difference in the proportion who managed to quit was 14.3%. Since the intervention consisted of the offer of incentives to quit smoking, the intervention was received by all women in the intervention group. However, "compliance" was successfully quitting with incentives, and the CACE analysis yielded an identical result, causal birth weight increase 21 g ÷ 0.143 = 145 g. CONCLUSIONS: Policy makers have great difficulty giving pregnant women money to stop smoking. This study indicates that a small clinically insignificant improvement in average birth weight is likely to hide an important clinically significant increase in infants born to pregnant smokers who want to stop but cannot achieve smoking cessation without the addition of financial voucher incentives. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN87508788 . Registered on 1 September 2011.


Subject(s)
Birth Weight , Health Behavior , Infant, Low Birth Weight , Mothers/psychology , Pregnancy Complications/prevention & control , Prenatal Care/economics , Smokers/psychology , Smoking Cessation/economics , Smoking , Token Economy , Female , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Humans , Intention to Treat Analysis , Motivation , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Complications/economics , Pregnancy Complications/etiology , Prenatal Care/methods , Research Design , Risk Factors , Scotland , Smoking/adverse effects , Smoking/economics , Smoking/psychology , Smoking Cessation/psychology
20.
Work ; 57(3): 339-350, 2017.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28621694

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The sustainability of the workforce is threatened due to working conditions. One of the reasons for this is an imbalance between the working conditions and the capacity of the workers. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the paper, based on a literature review, is to explore the relationship between two main concepts, beginning with sustainability, and finished with ergonomics. Based on that relationship, determine if ergonomics could be helpful to improve the sustainability of the workforce. METHODS: Literature review was based on two keywords: sustainability and ergonomics. The focus was on create a theoretical path between these two concepts. The literature review draws on 100 journal articles, books, conference proceedings, thesis and reports. RESULTS: The results of the literature review highlights that an ergonomics approach is helpful and appropriate to determine the mismatch between people capacity and system demand. In that sense, the literature review reveals that both disciplines, ergonomics and sustainability, share the same principles and that the mix of both has significant potential. However, the literature also shows a lack of empirical information that proves that potential. CONCLUSION: The review first posits that sustainability principles could be helpful to improve the working conditions, and second, that an ergonomics approach provides information related with working conditions, organizations' problems and the needs of workers that would be helpful to create a sustainability workforce.


Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources , Ergonomics , Occupational Diseases/prevention & control , Employment , Humans , Occupational Health/economics
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